Friday, February 28, 2014

Beer's Bracket - 02/28/14 7PM


Auto bids are in CAPS.  Championship: Memphis (S) / New York (E) winner vs. Indianapolis (M) / Anaheim (W) winner.

Memphis (S)
(1S) FLORIDA (26-2) vs. (16S) UTAH VALLEY (15-10) @Orlando
(8S) Arizona State (20-8) vs. (9S) Southern Methodist (22-6) @Orlando
(5S) North Carolina (21-7) vs. (12S) TOLEDO (22-5) @San Antonio
(4S) SAINT LOUIS (24-3) vs. (13S) STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (24-2) @San Antonio
(6S) UCLA (21-7) vs. (11S) Brigham Young (19-10) @Orlando
(3S) Michigan (20-7) vs. (14S) DELAWARE (21-9) @Orlando
(7S) Connecticut (22-6) vs. (10S) Saint Joseph's (20-7) @St. Louis
(2S) KANSAS (22-6) vs. (15S) NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (20-5) @St. Louis


New York (E)
(1E) SYRACUSE (26-2) vs. (16E) ROBERT MORRIS (19-11) @Buffalo
(8E) Kansas State (19-9) vs. (9E) Stanford (18-9) @Buffalo
(5E) LOUISVILLE (24-4) vs. (12E) HARVARD (21-4) @Spokane
(4E) Michigan State (22-6) vs. (13E) GREEN BAY (20-5) @Spokane
(6E) Ohio State (22-7) vs. (11E) SOUTHERN MISS (22-5) @San Antonio
(3E) Iowa State (22-5) vs. (14E) MERCER (19-8) @San Antonio
(7E) Virginia Commonwealth (21-7) vs. (10E) California (18-10) @Buffalo
(2E) Villanova (25-3) vs. (15E) VERMONT (18-9) @Buffalo


Indianapolis (M)
(1M) WICHITA STATE (29-0) vs. (16M) ALABAMA STATE (12-10) @St. Louis
(8M) Colorado (20-8) vs. (9M) George Washington (20-7) @St. Louis
(5M) Texas (21-7) vs. (12M) Arkansas (19-9) @San Diego
(4M) Cincinnati (24-4) vs. (13M) BELMONT (21-8) @San Diego
(6M) Massachusetts (22-5) vs. (11M) Xavier (19-9) @Raleigh
(3M) Duke (23-6) vs. (14M) IONA (19-8) @Raleigh
(7M) New Mexico (22-5) vs. (10M) Baylor (16-10) @Milwaukee
(2M) WISCONSIN (23-5) vs. (15M) CALIFORNIA IRVINE (17-10) @Milwaukee


Anaheim (W)
(1W) ARIZONA (26-2) vs. (16W) DAVIDSON (17-11) @San Diego
(8W) Memphis (20-7) vs. (9W) Pittsburgh (21-7) @San Diego
(5W) Kentucky (21-7) vs. (12W) Oklahoma State (18-10) @Spokane
(4W) SAN DIEGO STATE (22-3) vs. (13W) NORTH DAKOTA STATE (19-6) @Spokane
(6W) Oklahoma (20-8) vs. (11W) Oregon (19-8) @Raleigh
(3W) Virginia (24-5) vs. (14W) GEORGIA STATE (19-7) @Raleigh
(7W) Iowa (19-9) vs. (10W) GONZAGA (23-6) @Milwaukee
(2W) CREIGHTON (23-4) vs. (15W) BOSTON UNIVERSITY (21-9) @Milwaukee


Last Six Pack: Xavier (19-9), Brigham Young (19-10), Oklahoma State (18-10), Minnesota (17-11), Arkansas (19-9), Florida State (16-11)

Added: SOUTHERN MISS (22-5), Arkansas (19-9), Florida State (16-11), CALIFORNIA IRVINE (17-10), UTAH VALLEY (15-10), HIGH POINT (13-13)
Dropped: Missouri (19-9), St. John's (18-11), Middle Tennessee (19-8), New Mexico State (20-9), Santa Barbara (16-8), VMI (13-11)

NIT 1 Seeds: Marquette (17-11), Providence (18-10), St. John's (18-11), Nebraska (16-11)
NIT 2 Seeds: Richmond (18-10), Tennessee (16-11), Missouri (19-9), Dayton (19-9)
NIT 3 Seeds: Georgetown (16-12), Clemson (17-10), North Carolina State (17-11), LSU (17-10)
NIT 4 Seeds: Utah (16-9), Maryland (15-13), West Virginia (15-13), Indiana (16-12)

Moving Up: WISCONSIN (23-5), North Carolina (21-7), Texas (21-7), Oklahoma (20-8), Kansas State (19-9), Stanford (18-9), Brigham Young (19-10), GEORGIA STATE (19-7), NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (20-5)
Moving Down: Duke (23-6), Ohio State (22-7), UCLA (21-7), Iowa (19-9), Memphis (20-7), Southern Methodist (22-6), GONZAGA (23-6), Minnesota (17-11), TOLEDO (22-5), GREEN BAY (20-5)

Top 5 First Round Individual Matchups
Game 1: (4M) Cincinnati vs. (13M) Belmont @ San Diego: Sean Kilpatrick (20.5 PPG) / J.J. Mann (18.4 PPG)
Game 2: (4E) Michigan State vs. (13E) Green Bay @ Spokane: Gary Harris (17.9 PPG) / Keifer Sykes (20.1 PPG)
Game 3: (6S) UCLA vs. (11S) Brigham Young @ Orlando: Jordan Adams (17.2 PPG) / Tyler Haws (23.3 PPG)
Game 4: (3M) Duke vs. (14M) Iona @ Raleigh: Jabari Parker (18.8 PPG) / A.J. English (17.9 PPG)
Game 5: (3S) Michigan vs. (14S) Delaware @ Orlando: Nik Stauskas (16.9 PPG) / Devon Saddler (20 PPG)


Top 5 Potential Second Round Individual Matchups (Assumes Seeds 12 or Better Advance)
Game 1: (7W) Iowa vs. (2W) Creighton @ Milwaukee: Roy Devyn Marble (17 PPG) / Doug McDermott (26 PPG)
Game 2: (11S) Brigham Young vs. (3S) Michigan @ Orlando: Tyler Haws (23.3 PPG) / Nik Stauskas (16.9 PPG)
Game 3: (5E) Louisville vs. (4E) Michigan State @ Spokane: Russ Smith (17.7 PPG) / Gary Harris (17.9 PPG)
Game 4: (11M) Xavier vs. (3M) Duke @ Raleigh: Semaj Christon (16.5 PPG) / Jabari Parker (18.8 PPG)
Game 5: (1E) Syracuse vs. (9E) Stanford @ Buffalo: C.J. Fair (16.5 PPG) / Chasson Randle (18.7 PPG)


My First & Second Round Ticket For Thursday & Saturday Games
Orlando: Tyler Haws (23.3 PPG), Devon Saddler (20 PPG), Jahii Carson (18.7 PPG), Jordan Adams (17.2 PPG), Nik Stauskas (16.9 PPG)

My First & Second Round Ticket For Friday & Sunday Games
Raleigh: Joseph Young (18.9 PPG), Jabari Parker (18.8 PPG), R.J. Hunter (18.8 PPG), A.J. English (17.9 PPG), Buddy Hield (16.7 PPG)

Average Distance Traveled
First & Second Round Matchups: 1045 miles
Regional Matchups (Assumes Seeds 4 or Better Advance): Memphis (S): 1263 miles, New York (E): 924 miles, Indianapolis (M): 1289 miles, Anaheim (W): 2524 miles

The Bottom of the NIT: Louisiana Tech (22-6), Indiana State (19-8), Boise State (16-10), Illinois (16-12), Washington (15-13), St. Mary's (20-9), Middle Tennessee (19-8), Georgia (16-11), Ole Miss (17-11), San Francisco (17-10), Ohio (18-9), Oregon State (15-12), Manhattan (20-7), Vanderbilt (15-12), Wake Forest (15-13), UNLV (18-10)

SEED. SCHOOL
1. FLORIDA (26-2)
1. WICHITA STATE (29-0)
1. ARIZONA (26-2)
1. SYRACUSE (26-2)
2. KANSAS (22-6)
2. Villanova (25-3)
2. CREIGHTON (23-4)
2. WISCONSIN (23-5)
3. Duke (23-6)
3. Michigan (20-7)
3. Virginia (24-5)
3. Iowa State (22-5)
4. SAINT LOUIS (24-3)
4. Cincinnati (24-4)
4. SAN DIEGO STATE (22-3)
4. Michigan State (22-6)
5. LOUISVILLE (24-4)
5. Kentucky (21-7)
5. North Carolina (21-7)
5. Texas (21-7)
6. Ohio State (22-7)
6. UCLA (21-7)
6. Massachusetts (22-5)
6. Oklahoma (20-8)
7. Iowa (19-9)
7. Connecticut (22-6)
7. New Mexico (22-5)
7. Virginia Commonwealth (21-7)
8. Memphis (20-7)
8. Colorado (20-8)
8. Kansas State (19-9)
8. Arizona State (20-8)
9. Pittsburgh (21-7)
9. Southern Methodist (22-6)
9. George Washington (20-7)
9. Stanford (18-9)
10. GONZAGA (23-6)
10. Saint Joseph's (20-7)
10. Baylor (16-10)
10. California (18-10)
11. Oregon (19-8)
11. Xavier (19-9)
11. SOUTHERN MISS (22-5)
11. Brigham Young (19-10)
12. Oklahoma State (18-10)
12. Minnesota (17-11)
12. Arkansas (19-9)
12. Florida State (16-11)
12. HARVARD (21-4)
12. TOLEDO (22-5)
13. GREEN BAY (20-5)
13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (19-6)
13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (24-2)
13. BELMONT (21-8)
14. IONA (19-8)
14. DELAWARE (21-9)
14. GEORGIA STATE (19-7)
14. MERCER (19-8)
15. CALIFORNIA IRVINE (17-10)
15. VERMONT (18-9)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (21-9)
15. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (20-5)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (19-11)
16. DAVIDSON (17-11)
16. UTAH VALLEY (15-10)
16. WEBER STATE (14-9)
16. HIGH POINT (13-13)
16. ALABAMA STATE (12-10)


Potential Rematches
2013 Tournament - Iowa St. vs. Ohio St.
2012 Tournament - Cincy vs. Texas, Cincy vs. Florida St., Michigan St. vs. Louisville, Syracuse vs. Kansas St.

4 comments:

  1. Hey Beer,

    I think the bracket looks really good overall. Florida State seems like a stretch to me, but you explained your thought process on my bracket so won't question you on that.

    Want your thoughts on BYU. You have them in as an 11 seed, not even in the First Four round. The wins over Texas and Stanford are better than most bubble teams, but the Cougars have five losses outside the Top 75 and four outside the Top 125.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Lobo,

    You’re totally right about BYU! They have the worst “Loss” profile of all the bubble teams (Georgetown is close). On the other hand, they do have one of the best win profiles (in my opinion only behind Arkansas). I was definitely swayed by the Top 35 RPI & SOS numbers and bracketing procedures as well.

    Based on your question, I just tried to do a quick comparison of 15 bubble teams. I looked at overall win profile (favoring road and neutral wins) and overall loss profile (considering bad losses and opponent strength), etc. I used five different categories (ignoring each team’s actual RPI / SOS values) and only three teams did NOT appear in the Bottom 5 of any category: Arkansas, Florida State, and Oklahoma State.

    On the opposite side of the bubble, three teams appeared in the Bottom 5 of at least 3 different categories: Richmond, Missouri, and Tennessee. Tennessee came in dead last as the best part of their profile had to do with the quality of their losses… they finished ninth out of fifteen in that category! Missouri was barely ahead of them because they finished fifth in my evaluation of their Top 100 wins (UCLA-Home, NC State-Road, Arkansas-Road, Tennessee-Home, Arkansas-Home, etc.). Here’s how the 15 bubble teams finished in my analysis:

    Tier 1
    1 - Arkansas
    2 - Florida State
    3 - Oklahoma State

    Tier 2
    4 - Marquette
    5 - Nebraska
    6 - Xavier
    7 - Minnesota

    Tier 3
    8 - Brigham Young
    9 - Providence
    10 - Georgetown
    11 - St. John's
    12 - Dayton

    Tier 4
    13 - Richmond

    Tier 5
    14 - Missouri
    15 – Tennessee

    Based on these findings, I will definitely need to take a closer look at BYU… thanks for the question!!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Beer,

    Great analysis on the bubble teams. Based on your analysis I am going to need to take a closer look at teams like Marquette and Nebraska that I don't have anywhere near as high as you do.

    I am also going to have to take a closer look at Missouri and Tennessee who I know have in my last four in.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Just noticed you posted your Seed List yesterday... Definitely going to go check it out before posting my next bracket! I think I need to make a few changes to my analysis because I don't personally think Marquette and Nebraska are that good but here's what it thinks after yesterdays results (directionally, it looks pretty decent):

    Tier 1
    1 - Arkansas (NC)
    2 - Florida State (NC)
    3 - Oklahoma State (NC)
    4 - Xavier (UP from 6)

    Tier 2
    5 - Marquette (DOWN from 5)
    6 - Nebraska (DOWN from 4)
    7 - Minnesota (NC)

    Tier 3
    8 - Providence (UP from 9)
    9 - Georgetown (UP from 10)
    10 - Brigham Young (DOWN from 8)
    11 - Dayton (UP from 12)
    12 - St. John's (Down from 11)


    Tier 4
    13 – Tennessee (UP from 15)

    Tier 5
    14 - Missouri (NC)
    15 - Richmond (DOWN from 13)

    ReplyDelete